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 The Comet Approaches!

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Munchaab
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PostSubject: The Comet Approaches!   Sat Sep 21, 2013 1:36 am

With much talk of comet ISON (and now its approach is closing on Mars orbit) I thought I would post some information about it.

Some are stating that ISON will fizzle out much like Elenin and will fail to impress those of us who watch the skies, even reporting that ISON has already begun to 'dim'.

I think the idea of ISON dimming is a misnomer.
ISON just has not brightened, as expected, in accordance with the maths used to gage Magnitude intensity of comets as they close in on the Sun.
The 'dirty snowball' theory (or the maths attributed to it) have (at least in part) been proven to be closer to guesswork than 'proven scientific fact' – look at how many times Astronomers have said they were completely surprised by a comet's 'behaviour'.

ISON should have brightened (as it crossed the 'frost-line') more than it did – NASA called this a 'slow down' and others seem to think that means it has dimmed – it hasn't it, is brighter now than it was a month ago and its coma is now significantly larger (about 80,000 miles compared to 50,000 miles in August).

If JPL (NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory) are correct in their calculations (bare in mind the maths gets better as they measure more and more sightings) then Mars will get a great fly-by, as ISON passes OVER the planet around October 1st.

I have seen YT videos (I will not post) that show the orbits only from above and suggest (just for the view hits, I guess) that ISON will HIT Mars.
(In JPL applet images the 'light blue line indicates an object being ABOVE the ecliptic plane (the 'height' in space the planets 'occupy' – and 'dark blue' is BELOW the ecliptic.)

C/2012 S1 (ISON) approaching Mars orbital distance Sept 26 2013 (looking FROM ABOVE the inner solar system):



C/2012 S1 (ISON) approaching Mars orbital distance Sept 26 2013 (looking SIDE ON at the inner solar system):




THIS IS WHAT SOME PEOPLE THINK WILL BE A COLLISION.
C/2012 S1 (ISON) AT Mars orbital distance Oct 1st 2013 (looking FROM ABOVE the inner solar system):




IT WON'T COLLIDE AS ISON IS WELL ABOVE MARS.
C/2012 S1 (ISON) AT Mars orbital distance Oct 1st 2013 (looking SIDE ON at the inner solar system):





If the 'dirty snowball' physics and the (mostly assumption) estimated mass of ISON is correct then October 1st should pass without anything special happening (except perhaps some amazing photos taken by satellites orbiting Mars which NASA will most likely keep for their own private viewing – public funds private data).

If the 'electric universe' physics is correct and/or the mass of ISON has been significantly underestimated then (all bets are off) we may witness something so spectacular that scientists will have to throw away many text-books and rethink a number of theorems.
I have not seen anyone (as yet) speculating as to the possibilities of ISON 'capturing' Mars and her two moons – To become a trail of ISON, Deimos, Phobos and Mars “The four horsemen of the apocalypse”  - but I bet you can find such a YT vid if you try.  ialsdrbp 

The 'Electric Universe' theory suggests that as the comet (negatively charged) closes in on the planet (positively charged) that the electrical differential between the two bodies will cause a discharge between them – like some 'thunderbolt of the gods' – they suggest that this has happened before creating the (several times longer, wider and deeper than the Grand Canyon) 'gash' across the Martian surface.



More info on the 'Electric Universe' HERE: http://www.thunderbolts.info/wp/

And a nice video about the “Electric Comet”




There seems to be a lot of misinformation out there (I know, when is there not).
Some people seem desperate to have ISON fit the description of Niburu (but it does not).
Nibiru is supposed to come from the South (below the ecliptic) – ISON is coming from the North (above the ecliptic). There are many other disparities but that's not what this post is about.
People are even saying ISON is coming from the constellation Orion – it isn't.
It was coming from the direction of Gemini. Then as time went by it (much like the planets pass through the constellations) appeared in Cancer. As of Sept 26th it will be in Leo, with Mars.

Image using Stellarium software showing ISON (in the red cross) next to Mars, just inside Leo 26th Sept 2013:



Stellarium software available free (multiple formats) HERE: http://stellarium.org/





If nothing 'dramatic' happens on or around October 1st (such as the 'Four Horsemen' scenario above – which you would think if there were any possibility of that, NASA would have informed FEMA and they would be making some sort of preparations(?) as not even an American Administration would be able to cover that up.) then ISON will cross (ABOVE) Earth's orbital path on/around November 2nd 2013.



Earth will not arrive at this point in space for another 74 days (Jan 15th 2014).




ISON crosses Earth's orbital path (November 2nd ABOVE the ecliptic – closer to the 'height' in space which Earth travels through than it was when it passed Mars, but it is still ABOVE the ecliptic plane).






The measurements/calculations at this point are most important.
We should know how far above the Earth's orbital path any potential debris has been left behind the comet – as we (Earth) will be passing under (or through) this 'debris field' on or around January 15th 2014.

According to current (JPL) calculations, ISON will cross the ecliptic plane on/around November 5th 2013:







At this point (if not just another 'normal' comet) some 'Electric Universe' proponents suggest that this 'crossing' may cause some sort of 'gravity shock wave' – which may or may not cause problems on Earth. However, Earth is not (as you see above) close to ISON at this point and I have never heard of any scientific examples of such a 'gravity wave' to comment.

After crossing the ecliptic ISON will dramatically increase in velocity and will 'slingshot' around the Sun (Nov 29th). It will (according to current JPL data) pass the Sun BELOW the ecliptic and will be 'thrown' high ABOVE the ecliptic – if it survives its close encounter with our star – back out into the depths of space.

The 'exit route' of ISON – although bringing it, seemingly, close to Earth - is (if JPL are correct) quite insignificant in terms of any 'dangers' as it will be so far above the Earth's orbital path, as it crosses, that there is NO danger of us travelling through any 'debris' it may still be leaving behind it.
It should allow for some fantastic viewing though, as it should be high in the daytime sky and may have become bright enough to see 'naked eye'.

It will then get higher and higher above the ecliptic as Earth moves towards its passage back out of the inner solar-system.
December 30th 2013 ISON crossing Earth's orbital path (exiting) 3-4 days before Earth reaches that position:



But, ISON is very much ABOVE the ecliptic:





At this point ISON is a night-time object again and may still be viewable 'naked-eye' high in the night sky.


If ISON is not as small as they say, is not just a 'dirty snowball' comet, drags 'The Four horsemen' with it and/or the 'Electric Universe' theorists are correct then things may be VERY different to what has been posted here.
However, I have seen nothing of any significance to suggest this is not “Just another comet” - except for it defying standard 'brightening' calculations, NASA hyping it up as “The Comet of The Century” then seeming to suggest they find it uninteresting enough not to 'photograph' it, weird 3 object images that seem to have been deliberately obfuscated and October 1st being a shut off date for many 'Emergency preparations' by 'authorities' across the USA.

I don't expect any official updates from NASA etc. until on/around October 1st – certain calculations (especially regarding mass) can be made as it passes Mars, Phobos and Deimos. I do hope they get some wonderful pictures from the millions of dollars worth of machinery they have in Mars' orbit – but they do have a habit of breaking down just as they are most wanted by those in the public with interest in space.

I'm reasonably confident ISON will pass without any significant problem, trust that it will not be as big a disappointment as Elenin and hope it will be an even more impressive sight in our skies than Hale-Bopp.

Clear skies all, and keep looking up!

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PostSubject: Re: The Comet Approaches!   Sat Sep 21, 2013 2:32 pm



Direct link:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=ykigJAcipms#t=822

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PostSubject: Re: The Comet Approaches!   Sat Sep 21, 2013 3:22 pm



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Ga9_EdbOTA

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PostSubject: Re: The Comet Approaches!   Wed Sep 25, 2013 12:11 am

This is an interesting online App (doesn't seem to work in FireFox though - they recommend chrome for it):

Interactive ISON Tracker:
Direct Link: http://www.solarsystemscope.com/ison/

The guy in this video uses it and suggests that ISON WILL go through the comet's debris field...

He shows that he believes the effected area of the USA will be FEMA ZONE 3...


Direct Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0PLQtTvx10&feature=player_embedded#t=40


ISON also seems to have a friend:
The guy in this video (from months ago when ISON was beyond Jupiter) points out several objects travelling with ISON (some ahead of the comet).


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q2_jpIui6Zo&feature=player_embedded#t=40

This image is more recent (24th September 2013)...




Interestingly - if ISON's 'fuzzy' little head (the coma of an officially 3 mile wide 'dirty snowball') is now over 80,000 KM - the companion (which seems very clear by comparison to ISON's coma) must be significantly larger than 80,000 KM wide (or much nearer to us).

According to some on the internet (I've not looked into it much myself) this asteroid companion is (433) 'Eros' - A Mars crossing asteroid. Eros is over 20 miles long and 7 miles wide. 2nd largest near Earth asteroid (second only to Ganymed) we know of and is currently inside Mars' orbital path.






Wikipedia comments that over time Eros could become an Earth crossing asteroid and could impact Earth with effect comparable to the dinosaur extinction. (but, without the interaction of another gravitational body, that could be 2 million years away).

The current position of Eros does seem to put it in the FOV (Field Of View) while observing ISON:




If that is Eros and ISON in the same FOV then some may ask the question, will ISON impact Eros or get close enough to perturb it?
It would (according to current JPL data) appear not.
By the 23rd of October Eros will be in direct line between Mars and the Sun, safely away (higher in the following image) from ISON:






It is a shame you can't add more than one body to the JPL applet at one time (if anyone knows of an applet or software that can track more please let me know).

The JPL data is being updated though – as you can see above (in the OP) – the data did show ISON directly above Mars on October 1st.
Now JPL data shows this close encounter on October 2nd .




This would show that the situation is fluid/dynamic (open to change as more/better data comes through observation).


Clear skies and eyes to the heavens! More updates as and when.

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